Technical Documentation / Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Every two years, the Policy Research Directorate (SPRD) of Human Resources and Skill Development Canada (HRSDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. HRSDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the results 2011 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of occupational imbalances over the projection period.

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Every two years, the Policy Research Directorate (SPRD) of Human Resources and Skill Development Canada (HRSDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. HRSDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the jobs seekers results by component that underly the 2011 COPS projections.

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Every two years, the Policy Research Directorate (SPRD) of Human Resources and Skill Development Canada (HRSDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. HRSDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the job openings results by component that underly the 2011 COPS projections.

Files

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.

This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2011 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future trends for the 33 industries covered by COPS, including a 10-year outlook for production and employment. The information is presented for different levels of industrial aggregation (sectors, sub-sectors and industries) and the projections are based on the anticipated changes in external and domestic drivers of aggregate demand presented in the macroeconomic scenario.

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Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of a macroeconomic scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.

This document presents the macroeconomic scenario that underlies the 2011 COPS projections. This scenario was developed in collaboration with the Conference Board of Canada based on information available as of Spring 2011.

The future long-term trends in Canada's economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographic developments, namely slower population growth and population aging. Such demographic changes, which cannot be avoided, are projected to have a major influence in the long-term evolution of Canada's labour force, employment, and economic potential.

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Primary Industries

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations. This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2011 COPS projections for the primary sector. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future trends for each industry in the primary sector covered by COPS.

Each industrial summaries includes the following information:

Definition and characteristics of the industry

Key stylized facts and statistics

Main occupations related to the industry

Historical performance in terms of production, employment and productivity

Domestic and external drivers of demand (including challenges and opportunities)

A 10-year outlook for production and employment (including long-term productivity trends)

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Construction and Manufacturing Industries

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations. This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2011 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future trends for each industries in the construction and manufacturing sectors covered by COPS.

Each industrial summaries includes the following information:

Definition and characteristics of the industry

Key stylized facts and statistics

Main occupations related to the industry

Historical performance in terms of production, employment and productivity

Domestic and external drivers of demand (including challenges and opportunities)

A 10-year outlook for production and employment (including long-term productivity trends)

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Service Industries

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations. This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2011 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future trends for each of the industries in the service sector covered by COPS.

Each industrial summaries includes the following information:

Definition and characteristics of the industry

Key stylized facts and statistics

Main occupations related to the industry

Historical performance in terms of production, employment and productivity

Domestic and external drivers of demand (including challenges and opportunities)

A 10-year outlook for production and employment (including long-term productivity trends)

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This document is the first in a two-part series on estimating and forecasting permanent retirement flows in the Canadian labour market. It focuses exclusively on retirements at the aggregate level, while a subsequent paper will address retirements at the occupational level. The main purpose of this document is to introduce a new time series measure of aggregate retirement flows for Canada estimated from the Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD). In addition, the document evaluates the importance of the main determinants of the retirement decision (according to the literature) on the evolution of retirement flows, and provides a forecast scenario for retirement flows at the national level over the next 10 years.

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Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)