Common menu bar
Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020
Canadian Occupational Projection System 2011 Projections
Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply 2011-2020
Labour Market Research and Forecasting
Policy Research Directorate
*In this document, the term occupation refers to the 3-digit occupations of the National Occupational Classification (NOC), unless specified otherwise.
A Review of Job Openings ans Job Seekers by Skill Level
Two-thirds of all projected job openings are in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management occupations
The projections show a total of 6.5 million job openings (those due to economic growth plus those due to replacement needs) over the next 10 years.
Two-thirds (66.5%) of these are in occupations that usually require postsecondary education (college, university or vocational) or management occupations.
- In fact, 69.8% of jobs created by economic expansion are expected to be in occupations generally requiring postsecondary education or in management, whereas 65.1% of job openings due to replacement are in these occupational groups, for a combined average of 66.5% (around 4.3 million).
- High-skilled and management occupations accounted for 62.3% of non-student employment in 2010.
Over the next ten years, about one-third of job openings (around 2.2 million) are expected to be in occupations requiring high school education or only on-the-job training.
Two-third of all job seekers are expected to look for work in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management
Text version of Figure 2 ? Job seekers by skill level, 2011-2020
It is projected that a total of 6.3 million job seekers (from the school system, immigration or other sources) will enter the labour market over the next 10 years.
Two-thirds (65% - around 4.1 million individuals) of these entries are anticipated to be in occupations that usually require postsecondary education (college, university or vocational) or in management occupations.
- Nearly half of new immigrants are expected to pursue work in occupations generally requiring postsecondary education or in management.
- Although 71.1% of school leavers will have postsecondary education, only 58.7% of them are expected to seek work in these occupations due to effects stemming from occupational mismatch (based on historical observation).
- Upward occupational mobility is also expected to add job seekers for positions in high-skilled occupations. This upward mobility is the result of historically mismatched skilled workers as well as promotion into management ranks.
- PSE and management occupations accounted for 62.6% of non-student employment in 2010.
By contrast, over the next ten years, one-third of job seekers (around 2.1 million) are expected to look for work in occupations requiring high school education or only on-the-job training.
Demand and Supply Imbalance: by Skill Level
With limited evidence of imbalances between labour demand and supply among broad skill levels in recent years?
Text version of Figure 3 ? Relative Unemployment Rates and Relative Wages by Skill Level, 1997-2010
These charts show unemployment rates and real wages by skill level relative to the average unemployment rates (or real wages) in the other skill levels.
In order to get a starting point for our projection, it is imperative to look at the past. Since the number of workers demanded by employers is impossible to observe historically (as demand might be constrained by supply), we have to look at other indicators, such as relative wages and relative unemployment rates, to assess historical imbalances in the labour market.
These charts show that relative unemployment rates and relative real wages have been fairly stable since 1990 and 1997 (when the latter data starts), suggesting that the labour market has not experienced significant imbalances by broad skill level over this period. This situation suggests that from the point of view of employers, there was enough labour to fill the required demand for all broad skill levels.
and the projections showing similar numbers of job openings and job seekers by skill level, no major imbalances by skill level are projected over the next ten years
The chart shows, for each skill level for the period 2011?2020, the projected number of job openings on the vertical axis and the projected number of job seekers on the horizontal axis as a share of the 2010 employment level. For example, a job openings rate of 4% indicates that the average annual level of job openings (which consist of expansion and replacement demand) in a specific skill level over the next 10 years represents 4% of its employment level in 2010.
Overall, the points fall close to the 45° line, which means that job openings (demand) and job seekers (supply) by broad skill level are projected to be roughly in balance over the next 10 years.
With limited incidence of imbalances between labour demand and supply in recent years, and with the projections showing similar levels of job openings and job seekers for each broad skill level, no major imbalances by skill level are projected over the next decade.
Demand and Supply Imbalances by Occupation
The absence of significant imbalances by skill level does not mean that there are no imbalances for specific occupations
Job seekers and job openings can be broadly in balance for an aggregate skill level, while imbalances (shortages or surpluses) prevail in many occupations within that same skill level.
On each side of the 45 degree line above are the boundaries that separate occupations projected to face a marked excess of job openings over job seekers or a marked shortfall of job openings from those projected to be in broad balance. The overall distribution of the growth in the supply and demand of labour determines the position of those boundaries.
The majority of 3-digit occupations are within the boundaries indicating a balance situation over the 2011-2020 period, However, some occupations, mainly high skill occupations, are in an excess demand situation, while several other occupations, mainly in skill level C, are projected to be in excess supply situation. Even if the assessment of future imbalances between job openings and job seekers give a good indication of the future labour market conditions, the combination with recent labour market conditions is essential to conclude about the future conditions of an occupation.
The outlook for labour market conditions by occupation is determined using observed conditions in recent years and projected trends in job seekers and job openings
Text version of Figure 6 - Projected Gap between Future Job Openings and Job Seekers
The approach used to assess the outlook by occupation is similar to what was done for aggregate skill levels. For each occupation, recent data on labour market indicators such as unemployment rates and wages are examined for signs of shortage or surplus, in order to have a sense of the supply-demand balance in that occupation at the start of the projection period. Second, the gap between projected job seekers and job openings in each occupation over the next 10 years is taken into account. Those occupations that display signs of an imbalance in recent years and/or a gap between projected job openings and job seekers are considered to be in surplus or shortage.
An occupation is considered to be facing a:
- A Balance outlook if:
- Recent labour market conditions indicate no signs of pressures and the future conditions indicate a balance between job openings and job seekers.
- A Shortage (surplus) outlook if:
- Recent labour market conditions indicate a shortage (surplus) and the projections show substantially more job openings than job seekers (substantially more job seekers than job openings);
- Recent labour market conditions indicate a shortage (surplus) and the projections show balance between job openings and job seekers;
- Recent labour market conditions indicate no signs of pressure and the projections show substantially more job openings than job seekers (substantially more job seekers than job openings).
- An Uncertain outlook if:
- In the table, the grey cells represent occupations for which the final outlook is more difficult to assess. Indeed, since we cannot quantify the size of the imbalance in recent years, it is difficult to give an occupational outlook to occupations that show surplus (or shortage) conditions in recent years and more job openings than job seekers (more job seekers than job openings) over the projection period. Given the uncertainty, and after further analysis, those occupations were considered to be in balance.
Text version of Figure 7 ? Occupations projected to face shortages or surpluses
The table above presents the occupational outlook for all 140 3-digit occupations. A majority of occupations (those in the white cell) are found to have a balance outlook. Indeed, the occupations with a balance outlook represent almost 60% of the 2010 employment while occupations with an outlook of shortage (those in the green cells) represent 15% of the 2010 employment. Occupations with an occupational outlook of surplus (those in the red cells) represent 25% of the 2010 employment.
In a diversified economy such as Canada's, with different regions having quite different industrial mixes and demographics, a national-level assessment of pressures in occupational labour markets could easily mask major differences across regions. Some parts of the country may be facing a labour shortfall in an occupation while other regions may have excess supply in that same occupation. Also, it is important to remember that the analysis is based on aggregate data. For example, although our projections do not show shortage conditions for university professors in general, given the projected increase in the total number of people completing their doctorate degree, there may be a shortage for professors working in particular fields.
Shortages are projected over the next 10 years in some high-skilled occupations
- Skill Types
- Business, Finance and Administration Occupations
- Occupations in Shortage
- Human Resources and Business Service Professionals (NOC 112), Administrative and Regulatory Occupations (NOC 122)
- Skill Types
- Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations
- Occupations in Shortage
- Other Engineers (NOC 214), Architects, Urban Planners and Land Surveyors (NOC 215), Mathematicians, Statisticians and Actuaries (NOC 216)
- Skill Types
- Health Occupations
- Occupations in Shortage
- Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community Services (NOC 031), Physicians, Dentists and Veterinarians (NOC 311), Optometrists, Chiropractors and Other Health Diagnosing and Treating Professionals (312), Therapy and Assessment Professionals (NOC 314), Nurse Supervisors and Registered Nurses (NOC 315), Medical Technologists and Technicians (NOC 321), Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services (NOC 341)
- Skill Types
- Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion
- Occupations in Shortage
- Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community Services (NOC 041), Judges, Lawyers and Quebec Notaries (NOC 411), College and Other vocational Instructors (NOC 413), Policy and Program Officers, Researchers and Consultants (NOC 416)
- Skill Types
- Sales and Service Occupations
- Occupations in Shortage
- Managers in Protective Services (NOC 064), Insurance and Real Estates Sales Occupations and Buyers (NOC 623), Police Officers and Firefighters (NOC 626), Other Occupations in Protective Service (NOC 646)
- Skill Types
- Trades Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations
- Occupations in Shortage
- Managers in Construction and Transportation (NOC 071)
- Skill Types
- Occupations Unique to Primary Industry
- Occupations in Shortage
- Supervisors Logging and Forestry (NOC 821), Supervisors, Mining, Oil and Gas (NOC 822), Contractors, Operators and Supervisors in Agriculture, Horticulture and Aquaculture (NOC 825)
Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.
The table shows the distribution of occupations in shortage among skill types. This table shows that, although most skill types are represented in the table, most occupations in shortage can be found in the health sector.
A large number of occupations that are expected to face labour shortages (excess labour demand) over the next ten years are in health, management, trades, transport and equipment and in the primary sector. They are almost all high skilled occupations (occupations usually requiring a college or a university education, or management occupations).
Data on employment growth, wage growth and unemployment rate suggest that all the occupations projected to face labour shortages in the medium term were already in that situation or in balance in recent years. For instance, higher health care needs due to population ageing will increase demand for several health care occupations to levels markedly higher than can be met by current projected supply. Retirements will contribute more to these shortages over the medium term than new job creation.
Increasing the number of job seekers to meet projected job openings will pose significant challenges in many occupations
The gaps between job seekers and job openings anticipated in the next ten years are often considerable for some occupations projected to face shortage. In some cases the annual number of job seekers from the school system and immigration would have to be two or even three times larger than projected to meet anticipated demand. Such substantial increases in the number of new job seekers in those occupations would be unlikely to materialize quickly.
However, other occupations, such as Supervisors in Mining, Oil and Gas, College Instructor or Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community Services have, as a major source of job seekers, workers coming from other occupations. In most cases significant experience is required. This explains the large number of workers coming from downstream occupations. Nevertheless, even when job seekers from other occupations are considered, excess demand remains present in many occupations.
Example of an occupation with a projected shortage - Supervisors, mining, oil and gas (NOC 822) ? Skill Level B
Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation has displayed a small decline in employment. However, this was accompanied by a small drop in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in 2010 was lower than average (6% compared to 7.6%). Also, the average hourly wage, which was already very high for an occupation not requiring a university diploma, has increased slightly over that period. These labour market indicators suggest that the number of job seekers was not large enough to fill all the job openings in this occupation.
Based on the projections and considering that this occupation was recently in shortage, this occupation will remain in shortage as job seekers will not be in sufficient number to fill all the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Over that period, job openings will be coming as much from expansion demand as from retirements. The number of job openings coming from economic growth will be numerous since this sector is expected to grow faster than average but it will remain smaller than what was observed over the 2001-2010 period. This industry was in full expansion for several years because of the rise in global demand and the cost of energy products. Major investments in modernizing current facilities and launching new projects, particularly in the oil sands, contributed to the high labour demand during this period. However, over the projection period, new job creation is expected to slow down as a result of technological advances in oils sands treatment, which will reduce labour force needs and increase productivity, and, also, because of less rapid growth in international demand. Retirements will also be an important source of job openings despite the average retirement rate. In terms of supply, job seekers will come primarily from the school system. As a result of the favourable job perspectives and wages that characterize occupations in the oil and gas industries, these occupations are expected to attract workers from other occupations.
Surpluses over the next 10 years are projected in low-skilled occupations, manufacturing and in trades and transportation
- Skill Types
- Business, Finance and Administration Occupations
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Managers in Communication (NOC 013), Secretaries, Recorders and Transcriptionists (NOC 124), Clerical Occupations, General Office Skills (NOC 141), Office Equipment Operators (NOC 142), Library, Correspondence and Related Information Clerks (NOC 145), Recording, Scheduling and Distributing Occupations (NOC 147)
- Skill Types
- Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Computer and Information Systems Professionals (NOC 217), Technical Occupations in Physical Sciences (NOC 221)
- Skill Types
- Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Managers in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport (NOC 051), Technical Occupations in Libraries, Archives, Museums and Arts Galleries (NOC 521), Athletes, Coaches, Referees and Related Occupations (NOC 525)
- Skill Types
- Sales and Service Occupations
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Chefs and cooks (NOC 624), Retail Salespersons (NOC 642), Occupations in Travel and Accommodations (NOC 643), Occupations in food and beverage service (NOC 645), Cashiers (NOC 661), Other sales and related Occupations (NOC 662, Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations (NOC 664), Security Guards and Related Occupations (NOC 665), Other Elemental Service Occupations (NOC 668)
- Skill Types
- Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers (NOC 072), Machinists and Related Occupations (NOC 723), Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades (NOC 726), Carpenters and Cabinetmakers (NOC 727), Masonry and Plastering Trades (NOC 728), Other Construction Trades (NOC 729), Upholsterers, Tailors, Shoe Repairers, Jewellers and Related Occupations (NOC 734), Heavy Equipment Operators (NOC 742), Other Transport Equipment Operators and Related Workers (NOC 743), Other Installers, Repairers and Servicers (NOC 744), Longshore Workers and Material Handlers (NOC 745), Trades Helpers and Labourers (NOC 761), Public Works and Other Labourers (NOC 762)
- Skill Types
- Occupations Unique to Primary Industry
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Fishing Vessel Masters and Skippers (NOC 826), Logging and Forestry Workers (NOC 842), Agriculture and Horticulture Workers (NOC 843), Other Fishing and Trapping Occupations (NOC 844), Primary Production labourers (NOC 861).
- Skill Types
- Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities
- Occupations in Excess Supply
- Supervisors, Assembly and Fabrication (NOC 922), Central Control and Process Operators in manufacturing and processing (NOC 923), Machine Operators and related workers in metal and mineral products processing (NOC 941), Machine Operators and related workers in pulp and paper production (NOC 943), Machine operators and related workers in textile processing (NOC 945), Machine Operators and related workers in food, beverage and tobacco processing (NOC 946), Printing machine operators and related occupations (NOC 947), Mechanical, Electrical and Electronics Assemblers (NOC 948), Other Assembly and Related Occupations (NOC 949), Machining, Metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators (NOC 951)
Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.
The table shows the distribution of occupations in surplus among skill types. This table shows that, although most skill types are represented in the table, most occupations in surplus can be found in processing, manufacturing, trades and transportation.
There are also several occupations that are projected to have a labour surplus over the coming decade. These are mainly low-skilled occupations, i.e., occupations that usually require less than college or university education. These occupations are often specific to the primary and processing, manufacturing and utilities sectors, where expansion demand is not projected to be as strong as in the rest of the economy.
This list also contains a number of high skill occupations. Those occupations are mainly in industries that have been declining over the last ten years such as occupations in processing and manufacturing.
This list contains a certain number of trade occupations. Those occupations have a surplus outlook over the medium term as investment in residential structures is expected to decelerate. Computer and Information Systems Professionals (NOC 217) have not shown signs of pressures in recent years. Yet, this occupation is projected to show excess supply over the 2011-2020 period. In the coming decade, a large number of school leavers and immigrants will seek work in this occupation. Despite the high number of job openings due to economic growth, the projected number of job openings does not exceed the number of new job seekers. The reason for the relative lack of job openings is the small number of retirees from this occupation (which is populated largely by younger workers).
Example of an occupation projected to be in surplus ? Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators (NOC 951) ? Skill Level C
Over the 2008-2010 period, job losses in this occupation were high, resulting in a significant increase in the unemployment rate, which rose to 19.3% in 2010. The average hourly wage remained stable and low. This suggests that there was a surplus of workers in this occupation. In other words, the number of job seekers exceeded the number of job openings. Although this precarious situation is in large part due to the 2008-2009 recession, which greatly affected the manufacturing sector, the decline in employment in this occupation actually started well before the recession.
Based on projections and considering the surplus of workers in this occupation in recent years, it is expected that the labour surplus will continue over the 2011-2020 period. In other words, the number of job seekers will continue to exceed the number of job openings. Employment growth is expected to be relatively weak over this period. However, this will be an improvement over the job losses recorded over the 2001-2010 period. In addition to the impact of the recent recession, the weak employment outlook can be explained by productivity gains as the industry becomes more capital intensive. In the automotive sector, the outlook can be explained by buyer preference for vehicles built abroad. Retirements will be the main source of job openings in this occupation, but the retirement rate will nevertheless be on par with the average for all occupations. The main source of job seekers will be workers from other occupations, followed by school leavers (especially high school graduates and people who have not completed high school). Immigrants will also represent a significant proportion of job seekers since this occupation is particularly popular among new immigrants entering the Canadian labour market.
Outlook by Skill Level
Outlook for management occupations, 2011-2020
Text version of Figure 11 ? Outlook for management occupations, 2011-2020
As shown previously, the management skill level is projected to be in balance over the 2011-2020 period. In 2010, this skill level employed about 1.5 million workers (9.5% of total employment in 2010) in 2010. Over the projection period, we expect about 708,000 job openings and 723,000 job seekers.
However, at the occupational level, imbalances will exist. Over the 2011-2020 period, four occupations are projected to be in shortage. Those four occupations employed, in 2010, 343,000 (2.2% of total employment in 2010).
Ten occupations in management are in balance over the projection period. Those occupations employed 1.1 million workers in 2010 (6.9% of total employment).
Finally, three management occupations, accounting for 66,000 workers in 2010 are in surplus over the projection period. Those workers represented 0.4% of total employment in 2010.
As shown previously, skill level A is expected to be in balance over the 2011-2020 period. In 2010, this skill level employed about 3 millions workers (19.2% of total employment in 2010). Over the projection period, it is projected 1.4 million job openings and 1.3 million job seekers.
However, at the occupational level, imbalances will exist. Over the 2011-2020 period, 11 occupations are projected to be in shortage. Those eleven occupations employed, in 2010, 1.1 million workers. Among those occupations we find mostly health occupations. As the Canadian population ages, the demand for health services is projected to greatly increase and the need for health care professionals will therefore rise. The type of knowledge required to work in this occupational group is highly specialized and because of this, immigration and mobility from other occupations cannot meet the increase in labour demand. School leavers are projected to be the main source of job seekers. A substantial increase in the number of school leavers is needed to fill the projected gap between job openings and job seekers. However, training takes a long time, which makes it difficult to substantially increase the number of job seekers from the school system.
Over the projection period, eleven occupations are projected to be in balance. In 2010, we found 1.5 million workers in those occupations (9.5% of total employment in 2010).
Finally, only one occupation is expected to be surplus in skill level A, Computer and information systems professionals (NOC 217). Over the next decade, a large number of school leavers and immigrants will look for work in this occupation. Despite stronger than average employment growth, the number of job openings is not projected to exceed the number of new job seekers. The reason for the relative lack of job openings will be the small number of retirees from this occupation (which is populated largely by younger workers).
Outlook for occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training (Skill Level B), 2011-2020
As shown previously, skill level B (occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training) will be in balance over the 2011-2020 period. In 2010, this skill level employed about 5.3 millions workers (34% of total employment in 2010). Over the projection period, 2.2 million job openings and 2 million job seekers are expected.
However, at the occupational level, imbalances will exist. Over the 2011-2020 period, seven occupations are expected to be in shortage. In total, those occupations employ about 1 million workers (6.6% of total employment in 2010). This is the case for medical technologist and technicians (NOC 321) and some primary sector occupations.
Over the same period, 14 occupations are expected to be in surplus. Several trades and manufacturing occupations have shown signs of surplus in recent years. This is not surprising as the manufacturing sector has been declining for a long period and was significantly affected by the recent recession.
Also, 33 occupations, with combined employment of 3.4 millions workers in 2010 (21.4% of total employment) are projected to be broadly in balance.
Outlook for occupations usually requiring high school education (Skill Level C), 2011-2020
As shown previously, skill level C ( occupations usually requiring secondary school and or occupation-specific training) are expected be in balance over the 2011-2020 period. In 2010, this skill level employed 4.4 million workers (27.7% of total employment in 2010). Over the projection, we expect 1.6 million job openings and 1.7 job seekers.
However, at the occupational level, imbalances will exist. Over the 2011-2020 period, 2 occupations are projected to be in shortage. These occupations employed 356,000 workers in 2010 (2.3% of total employment). Although assisting occupations in support of health services (NOC 341) will be in balance over the projection period, it has shown signs of shortage in recent years. With the Canadian population ageing, the demand for healthcare services and professionals will continue to increase.
Over the same period, 24 occupations of this skill level are expected be in surplus. Those occupations employed 2.2 million workers in 2010 (14.3% of total employment).
Also, over the 2011-2020 period, 9 occupations are expected be in balance. The workers in those occupations represented 11.2% of total employment in 2010.
Outlook for Occupations usually requiring on-the-job training (Skill Level D), 2011-2020
A significant imbalance for skill level D. In 2010, this skill level employed 1.5 million workers, almost 10% of total employment of that year. Over the projection period, we project, for this skill level, 563,000 job openings and 471,000 job seekers.
However, at the occupational level, imbalances will exist. Over the 2011-2020 period, 10 occupations are projected to be in surplus. In 2010, those occupations employed 1.1 million workers (7.1% of total employment).
Over the projection period, only one occupation requiring on-the-job training is projected to be in balance: Cleaners (NOC 666).
Primary navigation (left column)
Canadian Occupational Projection System
- About the Projections
- Occupational Projection Summary
- Projection Data
- Technical Documentation
- Glossary
- National Occupation Classification (NOC)
- Working in Canada
Department
- Ministers
- About Us
- Newsroom
- Publications and Resources
- Funding Programs
- Consultation and Engagement
- Success Stories
- Labour Program
- Service Canada